The very well meaning Revolution of Dignity by our fervent pro European Ukrainians in Kyiv in February 2014 was not meant to lead to the Russian/Ukrainian War. It did however, because it meant the overthrow of the properly and fairly elected pro-Russian President Yanukovych.
"In November 2013, a wave of large-scale protests known as "Euromaidan" began in response to President Yanukovych's sudden decision not to sign a political association and free trade agreement with the European Union (EU), instead choosing closer ties to Russia." Wikipedia
Putin was desperate to keep his last, former USSR state in the Russian orbit, so promised a suite of goodies that persuaded Yanukovych not to sign the European incentives.
The protesters did not stand for that. The authorities reacted violently. Over 100 were killed. It ended with Yanukovych fleeing to Russia; in revenge for their defeat, Putin invaded Crimea to be part of Russia, once more, and the war began in eastern Ukraine.
I heard on Radio 4 that 14,000 people died in the eight years between Feb 2014 and Feb 2022 when the full invasion and war on Ukraine began in earnest.
At that time, I thought Crimea's annexation was fair enough in exchange for a Western 'win' in ousting a properly and fairly elected pro-Russian President and, when our side should have waited for the next election to attempt to elect a pro-Western President.
I thought this was a civil war between two countries that have been entwined for 1,000 years of history and conflict. This latest war was encouraged by an American-led Western resurgence and eastward expansion since the collapse of the Soviet Union and Ukraine's independence in 1991. Those two events, alone, were 'wins' for the West that were bound to unsettle a strong Russian nationalist like Putin. But we had no empathy. Only triumphalism. No magnanimity. Provocative crowing at our good fortune at Russia's expense.
It also accentuated the imbalance between the US led West/Israel and a 'smaller' Russia, especially when the Warsaw Pact disbanded but NATO became ever bigger - even picking up former Warsaw Pact members. How humiliating for Russia, like the humiliation and punishment of losers Germany in 1919. Strung up as a lesson to the rest of the world. And we know what that led to. But we never learn! Every participant in that 1914 war was a tragic loser. The men and women of violence just love their wars too much.
There are also unsettling matters I have picked up on, over what was 'promised' to Russia over the future of East Germany and NATO in the 1990s. But, it seems, nothing was written down. Perhaps, Mrs Thatcher was right in opposing the speed of the union of East and West Germany.
From John Nightingale:
"Thanks for the vg Seldon article.
"A month ago I was in Berlin and saw a very interesting exhibition at the German Historical Museum.
"In 1952 Stalin offered to reunify Germany as long as it was neutral but Adenauer and co were not playing, fearing rightly or wrongly that their democracy would be at risk."
